At AGU 2024, in Washington, DC, I had the opportunity to illuminate the need for applied ice sheet modeling. Ice sheet modeling started out as a niche, obscure, curiosity. But, in the meandering manner of academic discovery, ice sheet modeling has found itself at the heart of one of the most significant needs for applied science.
The world’s oceans are rising and coastal flooding threatens 100s of millions more people by the end of the century. The biggest driver of that sea level rise, and also the most uncertain component, is the shrinking ice sheets. As those ice sheets lose ice, the melt floods the oceans. Planning for sea level rise, including up to a trillion dollars of global spending for coastal adaptation, relies on projections of ice loss that come from ice sheet models. However, because of the legacy of ice sheet modeling as a “curiosity,” there is no federal money in the US to meet this need for applied projections of sea level rise.
The grassroots, volunteer organization, ISMIP7, has emerged to meet this need, but it doesn’t have the support it needs to carry out its mission. Unfortunately, existing simulations of ice sheet change do not credibly reproduce observed ice sheet behavior and so the simulations of future ice sheet loss are also not credible. Thus the needs of those living on the coasts are not met. All the expenditures going towards preparing people on the coasts for flooding are potentially misdirected because the bedrock projections of that coastal flooding are so flawed.
In my presentation at AGU, I laid out this problem and my vision for the solution. I’m attaching my slides here, along with my talking point notes where explanation is necessary. Be in touch if you’re interested in discussing or learning more.
